The management at Stuff must have great trust in the weather and mechanical gods. The publisher faces multiple risks if its printing relocation from Wellington to Christchurch displeases the deities.
A willingness to risk displeasing the gods shows the problem Stuff has in addressing a predicament facing many newspaper publishers. Their large and expensive printing plants were built for an age that has passed.
Some media suggest Stuff has had its hand forced by the sale of the property housing its Petone printing plant to what might be described as a hostile party. The property had been retained by Nine Entertainment when it sold Stuff to Sinead Boucher for a token dollar. Last year the Australian media firm displayed its total disregard for its former New Zealand subsidiary when it sold the property. New owner Troy Bowker had made no secret of his dislike for Stuff (which Nine would have discovered when it did due diligence) and he lost no time in serving notice on the publisher to quit the premises by April next year.
Since the purchase, Boucher and Bowker have engaged in what could variously be described as a game of poker or a Mexican stand-off. If the new owner thought he would panic Stuff into paying over the odds to buy the property in order to keep printing, he was wrong. Last week, Boucher announced that the printing plant would be shut and all of the company’s printing requirements for the lower North island would be met by its modern plant near Christchurch Airport. She said the press consolidation had long been part of Stuff’s strategic plan. Her announcement made no mention, however, of any transport arrangements for getting the Stuff titles and third-party contract printing products to the North Island.
The South Island plant was written into history in the wake of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake when Press editor Andrew Holden and his team produced an edition the morning after the quake destroyed the newspaper’s headquarters but not its printing presses. The editorial staff of The Press operated from the printing site for more than a year.
The Christchurch plant is more than capable of printing Wellington’s Post, New Plymouth’s Taranaki Daily News, Palmerston North’s Manawatu Standard and Masterton’s Wairarapa Times-Age in addition to the Press. It can also accommodate the lower North Island print run of the Sunday Star Times.
Newspaper circulations have shrunk since the plant was built and are a fraction of what was produced when the Petone plant benefitted from the relocation of equipment after then-owner Fairfax closed its Tullamarine and Chullora plants in Australia in 2014. Stuff had recognised that, at some point, it would have faced closure of the plant as the gap between production and capacity widened to the point where it did not make economic sense to keep it open. Bowker, however, has put a date on it.
Circulation figures for New Zealand’s daily newspapers have been hidden from public view for several years. The Audit Bureau of Circulation last produced figures in 2021, the year it was disestablished in the wake of ever-declining print numbers.
Those numbers showed the Post (then the Dominion-Post) had been losing circulation at a consistent rate of about 3000 copies a year for the previous five years. Allowing for a slowing in the rate of decline as it reached core levels, I would estimate the Post’s current net daily print circulation to be roughly 20,000 to 23,000.
Regional titles also faced declining print circulations, and I would estimate the combined net daily print circulation of the Taranaki Daily News, Manawatu Standard and Wairarapa Times-Age is now likely to be in the order of 10,000 to 12,000.
I have no way of accurately estimating what the lower North island circulation of the Sunday Star Times might be. Based on the final five years of ABC figures, its nationwide net print circulation is probably no more than 40,000. So, for argument’s sake, let’s say a third are sold between Wellington and Taupo.
Allowing for some day-to-day variation (for example, Saturday circulations are larger than weekdays) this will mean that Stuff will be transporting around 30,000 to 35,000 daily papers each night and about 14,000 Sunday papers from Christchurch to the North Island.
Compared with the numbers of copies routinely transported around various countries in the heyday of newspapers, those numbers are a doddle. Capacity, however, is not the issue.
Time and continuity are the challenges that will face Stuff in getting newspapers from its Christchurch presses to letterboxes across the lower North Island.
As I say, Stuff has not revealed its transport plans, but the industry money is on road transport in all but exceptional circumstances. Air freighting on a daily basis would be very expensive.
The road journey for a heavy vehicle from Christchurch to Picton on SH1 is more than five hours. The ferry journey across Cook Strait is a further 4½ hours. Allowing for a comfort stop, we are talking about a 10-hour transit before the final distribution to destinations begins.
And there is a finite time upon which all transport will hinge. It is the 9.30 pm sailing of the ferry from Picton. That ferry arrives in Wellington at 1 am, allowing sufficient time for the papers to connect with their existing distribution systems. However, if a truck misses that ferry, the next sailing (2.30 am) does not reach the capital until 6 am. By that time, newspaper delivery trucks should have been making their last drop-offs to the letterbox deliverers.
Inevitably, this will bring forward the deadlines of all of the newspapers concerned. To meet the 9.30 pm ferry, newspapers will need to be off the presses and on the trucks by 4pm at the latest. Editorial deadlines are likely to be between 2 pm and 3 pm. By some estimates, those deadlines could be even earlier.
Effectively that will take these morning newspapers back to the sort of deadlines to which evening papers like the Auckland Star worked when I was one of its reporters (a long time ago). The Post will be harking back to its previous incarnation as the Evening Post.
There will be consequences. The Post is noted for its up-to-date coverage of national politics, but its print editions will be hard-pressed to include coverage of what happens after midday. The regional titles, already pressured by Petone’s requirements, will also find more coverage pushed into the following day’s paper. I anticipate that earlier deadlines will lead to more analysis and commentary and less news-of-the-day in the Post. The Stuff website and its masthead offshoot will become the go-to places for hard news.
The time lords will impose constant pressure – and journalists know how to work with that – but it is the weather and mechanical gods who could make life hell for Stuff.
NIWA predicts an increase in the frequency of adverse weather conditions. Bridges and roads are at risk from both high intensity rainfall and flood events, which are likely to happen more often as the climate changes.
Closures on SH1 between Christchurch and Picton, plus cancellation of ferry crossings of what is regarded as one of the most dangerous and unpredictable waters in the world, pose threats to the newspapers’ distribution system. Back-up air freight services may be available but they are expensive and may not be available at late notice.
The ferry services themselves are problematic. Although the press change does not take effect for another 12 months, the current issues over ferry availability and mechanical breakdowns could still be realities when the cross-strait link becomes a key part of Stuff’s supply chain. As I was writing this column, the Bluebridge ferry Connemara suffered a mechanical fault that cancelled sailings. New ferries are not due to come into service until 2029, by which time daily print editions may have a question mark over them.
There are alternatives.
Transport from Christchurch could be by air. Many believe the cost of flying all titles north could be prohibitive but airfreighting the regional titles (and thus avoiding a lengthy secondary road trip from Wellington) may be sustainable.
Stuff could contract Herald publisher NZME to print some or all of the lower North island titles in its Auckland plant. The Ellerslie plant already prints the Waikato Times and northern editions of the Sunday Star Times for Stuff and – given that it was built when the New Zealand Herald’s print circulation was more than twice the current number – it has the capacity. I recall that the Ellerslie plant has the ability to print more than one title at the same time.
Yes, there is still a lengthy 9-10 hour road journey between Auckland and Wellington. That is similar to the Christchurch-Wellington transit time. However, multiple routes are available and the regional titles would be dropped off enroute. Crucially, there is no single point of failure like Cook Strait.
There is little point in Stuff relocating its over-capacity plant from Petone to new premises. However, it could source a smaller second-hand offset press capable of meeting the current printing requirements and locate it in or near Wellington. The issue, however, is whether there will be time to recoup any capital investment before economic necessity brings print editions to an end.
I can see why Stuff is attempting to maximise use of its Christchurch press capacity. Fixed overheads make up much of the cost of running a printing plant so getting the most out of it makes sense. I can also see why the company may wish to place increasing emphasis on its digital platforms for news. And it still has time to amend its plans if cheaper or less risky alternatives are found.
However, if its proceeds with its current plan, it will not take many late deliveries or empty letterboxes to hasten the cancellation of print subscriptions. That is the real risk it faces.
