Commentators who project themselves into the future are either very gifted or exceedingly stupid. Only time will tell which of those I have been.
I have been encouraged to lay my credibility on the line by a series of reports over the past week that address the future of mass media – the print, broadcasting, and mainstream digital outlets that are the primary producers of journalism.
I have projected myself forward to a time when I am preparing for my 100th birthday. Okay, it’s not that far away. We are talking about a leap in time of not much more than 20 years. Given the pace of technological change, that is as far forward as any sane person should be prepared to predict.
What I see is a landscape in which print is the quaint pursuit of an artisan group of niche periodical publishers, broadcasting is no longer a term in common use because it has been replaced by streaming services, and ‘mainstream’ is something that marketers recall with wistful fondness.
I see China and Bangladesh continuing to flood the world with mass-produced use-and-throw-away garments with which we clothe ourselves, while information seekers turn to the equivalent of nineteenth century bespoke tailors for their news. Journalism will become personal.
Several developments have drawn me to that prediction. Continue reading “A prediction: New Zealand’s media when I turn 100”